NEWS BRIEF 10.28.25

🎃 Shutdown Halts November SNAP Payments

The ongoing federal government shutdown is creating an immediate food security crisis for over 41 million Americans. SNAP benefit payments are staggered by state, with most recipients getting their monthly funds within the first two or three weeks of the month. This means that as Halloween approaches, many households have already exhausted their food budgets and are awaiting their next payment. Now, due to the shutdown, the USDA has confirmed that its funding has "run dry" and has instructed states to not issue November's benefits. As a result, millions of families who expected their EBT cards to be refilled, many as early as November 1, will receive no money.

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🌾 Soybean Prices Rally on Tentative China Trade Deal

Soybean futures surged to their highest price since June following reports of a new, tentative trade framework between the U.S. and China. The deal, which is being finalized ahead of a potential meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi, would reportedly see the U.S. suspend its threat of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. In exchange, China has agreed to resume "substantial" purchases of U.S. agricultural products, with a specific focus on soybeans. This news has injected significant optimism into the commodities market, offering a lifeline to American farmers who saw exports to the once-dominant buyer fall to nearly zero during the trade dispute.

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🍬 SNAP Crisis Casts Shadow Over Halloween

The imminent threat to SNAP benefits is poised to severely impact Halloween, potentially making this one of the worst years for trick-or-treating on record. The timing of the crisis is critical: with millions of families being warned this week that their entire November food budget may disappear in a matter of days, households are being forced to cut all non-essential spending immediately. This acute financial panic means discretionary purchases, such as bags of Halloween candy to hand out, are an impossibility for a significant portion of the population. As a result, widespread participation is expected to plummet as families struggling with food insecurity are forced to opt out of the holiday tradition.

News Brief 10.15.2025 — Government Shutdown

As the U.S. government shutdown enters its third week, a bitter political stalemate between Congress and President Donald Trump has left federal services shuttered and hundreds of thousands of workers without pay. The impasse centers on a budget dispute, with Republicans claiming that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is backtracking on a previous agreement due to pressure from within his party to appear strong against President Donald Trump. Democrats have forcefully denied this, arguing that they are blocking the current Republican proposal because it includes unacceptable policy provisions. This claim is disputed by the fact that Democrats approved these same policies in a budget framework months prior. With neither side showing any sign of compromise and negotiations stalled, the shutdown continues indefinitely, causing widespread disruption for federal employees and the American public.

Based on the data from the Kalshi prediction markets, the ongoing government shutdown is forecasted to last approximately 35.6 days, creating a severe outlook for critical food assistance programs. As of October 15th, with the shutdown already in its third week, the market indicates a 63% probability that the impasse will continue for more than 30 days. A shutdown of this projected length would cross the critical threshold for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), meaning the federal government would not have the funding authority to issue the entire round of November benefits to millions of families. The impact on the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is even more immediate; a shutdown lasting over a month would see its services, which operate on more fragile, short-term funding, almost entirely exhausted, leading to widespread clinic closures and the inability to serve new or existing recipients long before the shutdown reaches the market's forecasted end.